Bolivia

Compañeros! Este blog es de Bolivia:

1. Nothing Big Happens Politically In Bolivia Without The US All Over It

Who did Carlos Mesa meet with yesterday just before tendering his resignation? The US Ambassador. Do you think he paid a similar visit to the Spaniards or the Nicaraguans? After the 2002 elections who called in the various candidates one at a time to pressure them to line up behind Sánchez de Lozada? The US Embassy. It would be utterly out of character for the US Embassy NOT to have its fingers all over the question of who succeeds Mesa and apparently it is acting in true form.

2. The US Embassy is Really Good and Being Stupid

Remember back to the elections in 2002. The US Ambassador at the time took square aim at Evo Morales as the US’s chief Bolivian political enemy. To implement that view the US Ambassador publicly threatened Bolivians with a cutoff of aid if they voted for Morales, an announcement that single-handedly skyrocketed his support in the polls and put him within two points of finishing first. One would suppose that the US interest in Bolivia right now is promoting stability. By promoting Vaca Diez behind the scenes the US is really shoving Bolivia off the cliff.

What to watch for in the coming days:

A move to convene the Congress in Sucre, away from the La Paz protests, to accept Mesa’s resignation and make Vaca Diez his successor.
A response from other political leaders outside the Congress warning that Vaca Diez is a recipe for Bolivian disaster.
A counter-proposal from the social movements and others for: a caretaker government led by the Supreme Court President; new elections in August for President and Vice-President; and a national vote at the same time on regional autonomy, nationalization of gas, and election of members to a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution.
The US is playing with fire these days in Bolivia and it never plays with fire here well. In October 2003, when everyone including his own Vice President had broken with Sánchez de Lozada over his violent repression against protesters, the US propped him up for another week and another few dozen needless deaths.
Here’s a suggestion to my friends covering Bolivia for the foreign press. Start calling the Embassy and ask what role they are playing behind the scenes in the question of Mesa’s successor. I am not saying you’ll get a straight answer out of them, but you’ll be onto an interesting and vitally important story.

Jim Shultz, Bolivia blogperson, was quoted in this NYT (reg required) report on 8 June 2005.